Who Will Win the Future? The USA vs China.

The USA has been the world’s single superpower since the collapse of the Soviet Union. But will China soon usurp it as the dominant world power? Before I try my hand at answering this crucial question, let me sidetrack a little.

I was leafing through the internet a while back and came across an interesting book titled When China Rules the World: The End of the Western World and the Birth of a New Global Order. I haven’t read Martin Jacques' book, but as I scrolled down the page on Amazon, a particular piece of text from the publisher caught my attention. It was this:

According to even the most conservative estimates, China will overtake the United States as the world's largest economy by 2027 and will ascend to the position of world economic leader by 2050.

I am a futurist. More precisely, I write in the field of Critical Futures Studies. Futurists like me question things in depth. We like to probe away, and get into the gaps, identify the assumptions, and ask questions that others may not think to ask.

Firstly, there is an obvious factual error in the statement by the publisher.

The Ghosts of Tiananmen

Take a look at this photo. What is happening? Now, take a closer look at the man in the background, the small figure just to the left of the tree. Recognise him? No? Here’s a hint. He is captured here just moments before he is about to commit an act of such unfeasible courage, that it will lead to his being named one the 100 most influential people of the twentieth century by Time magazine.

Here's a little more help. Turn your attention to what is rolling down the road, just a few hundred metres away from the man. Perhaps now you’ve got it. This fascinating image was taken just moments before the man confronted the advancing tanks, shopping bags and all. This video will help jog your memory.

Mark Osborne's haunting short film, "More"

Deep Futures are about deep meaning, and this academy-award nominated short film is a perfect comment on futures that have lost all depth. Although the film shows an industrial work setting, the essence of the society remains the same for the so-called knowledge economy. In seeking to push for more "Bliss", we can lose touch with the child within, and the simple joy of being present.

More reminds me greatly of my resident city of Hong Kong, where ordinary people have become increasingly left behind amidst the relentless drive for growth at all costs. GDP is nothing to be proud of when the soul of humanity has been sucked dry in its endless pursuit of cash and "prestige/status/face".